Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.916206 1.068716 1.238359 1.441012 1.676510 1.941563 2.262585
2025-01-05 0.643930 0.838924 1.080318 1.400985 1.815816 2.334529 3.032924
2025-01-12 0.494490 0.696621 0.966490 1.352877 1.891961 2.617811 3.670571
2025-01-19 0.397611 0.597010 0.880125 1.310977 1.950179 2.864110 4.272138
2025-01-26 0.344751 0.546948 0.849692 1.335316 2.094941 3.238678 5.094697
2025-02-02 0.318259 0.530325 0.863222 1.422838 2.340405 3.786888 6.245041
2025-02-09 0.287550 0.501186 0.851381 1.465867 2.517704 4.246880 7.311864
2025-02-16 0.257913 0.468684 0.828333 1.485004 2.654769 4.653938 8.338348
2025-02-23 0.229988 0.434600 0.797109 1.484103 2.754374 5.005523 9.308216
2025-03-02 0.204543 0.401070 0.761840 1.470002 2.826321 5.313639 10.233853
2025-03-09 0.184784 0.375254 0.736874 1.470759 2.923987 5.676749 11.301931
2025-03-16 0.161529 0.339272 0.687819 1.418181 2.911458 5.829334 11.980704
2025-03-23 0.156520 0.339922 0.711278 1.514506 3.209623 6.625289 14.051583
2025-03-30 0.138061 0.310000 0.669447 1.471890 3.219653 6.850844 14.991828
2025-04-06 0.121418 0.281545 0.626777 1.421349 3.205421 7.022932 15.838414
2025-04-13 0.107509 0.257156 0.589532 1.377346 3.198881 7.208816 16.736083
2025-04-20 0.100459 0.247535 0.583614 1.402906 3.351011 7.757369 18.514797
2025-04-27 0.098565 0.249871 0.605143 1.494820 3.667672 8.711284 21.348201
2025-05-04 0.093666 0.244156 0.607040 1.540007 3.879041 9.447590 23.758266
2025-05-11 0.087695 0.234892 0.599176 1.560104 4.031563 10.062385 25.949125
2025-05-18 0.081157 0.223223 0.583827 1.559157 4.130867 10.558956 27.904884
2025-05-25 0.074562 0.210477 0.564123 1.544349 4.192632 10.969432 29.691734
2025-06-01 0.069333 0.200729 0.550962 1.545144 4.295474 11.495976 31.849139